FINAL: LAA 2 — SEA 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 4.1 - SEA 4.2 (LAA at 51.9% win probability). LAA wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAASEA
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W5LAA W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (3,953 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 4.1 — SEA 4.2
Actual
LAA 2 — SEA 7
Pick Results
LAA MLmlLOSS-0.50u
LAA MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%97 mph20% whiff
ST28%87 mph26% whiff
SI21%97 mph11% whiff
Yusei Kikuchi L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%96 mph15% whiff
SL24%87 mph24% whiff
FS17%87 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
74°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.034
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
4.11ERA
4.20FIP
8.66K/9
3.37BB/9
1.33WHIP
LAA
4.11ERA
4.08FIP
9.48K/9
3.85BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
-9.0% EV
-132
F5 UNDER 4.5
-8.8% EV
-145
NRFI NRFI
-7.6% EV
-139
ML HOME
+6.7% EV
+121
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-4.5% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
+4.1% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.4 runs
41.6% win
LAA F5
2.4 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Mike Trout LAA29.0%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.98x
Dominic Canzone SEA27.3%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 11.3% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Park: 0.98x
Cal Raleigh SEA26.7%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Yusei Kikuchi
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
LAA home ML shows 7.0% edge historically well-supported. Kikuchi (5.13 ERA) vs Kirby (4.59 ERA) is even, but LAA home field with 8.4mph outward wind (+1.064 HR mult) provides scoring boost advantage.
Key Factors
- Even SP matchup with home tilt: Kikuchi 5.13 ERA vs Kirby 4.59 ERA = 0.54 gap modest
- Home field boost: Angel Stadium 1.064 HR mult, 1.036 total mult from tailwind
- historically well-supported home fave: a supportive track record above baseline; 30-day home ML a supportive track record confirms
- Bullpen even: 4.11 ERA both teams
Risk Factors
- Modest 7.0% edge — market fairly close in pricing
- Kirby (4.59 ERA) actually superior to Kikuchi despite away status
- NRFI edge slightly negative — avoid first inning plays
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 51.9%
+4.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+4.1 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.