FINAL: NYY 10 — SEA 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 4.1 - SEA 3.4 (NYY at 57.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
NYY
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYSEA
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.8% (3,252 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.1 — SEA 3.4
Actual
NYY 10 — SEA 5
Pick Results
SEA @ NYY NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%96 mph17% whiff
FS24%85 mph29% whiff
SL10%88 mph28% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%94 mph20% whiff
SI26%93 mph17% whiff
ST20%84 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
81°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.001
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.44ERA
3.85FIP
8.90K/9
3.39BB/9
1.29WHIP
NYY
2.87ERA
3.84FIP
8.58K/9
3.46BB/9
1.17WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-16.0% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+7.7% EV
-101
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.4% EV
-192
NRFI NRFI
+6.2% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-5.9% EV
+110
F5_ML HOME
-5.6% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.8 runs
36.6% win
NYY F5
2.1 runs
44.8% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.8%
YRFI
37.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.314 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA29.6%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis García Jr. NYY22.5%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Gabe Speier RPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Naylor 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Kervin Castro RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model projects 7.47 total runs with 7.7% edge to UNDER 8.5, driven by Bryce Miller's elite 3.33 ERA vs Will Warren's modest 4.51 ERA plus multiple NYY lineup injuries (Judge, Bellinger, Stanton) reducing home run production.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch clear: Bryce Miller (3.33 ERA, B grade, 25.8% K-rate) beats Will Warren (4.51 ERA, B- grade, 23.4% K-rate) — ~1.2 run suppression advantage
- Yankee Stadium factor: 1.1x park factor usually inflates homers, but Warren's fastball-heavy mix vs a shorthanded NYY lineup limits exploitable power
- Temperature suppression: 81.1F cool with 5.2 mph cross-wind (1.001x multiplier) — baseline weather, slightly favorable to under
- NRFI confirmation: 6.2% edge (57.9% prob) suggests first inning managed, supporting under thesis
Risk Factors
- 7.7% edge historically mixed baseline: 50.1% true WR suggests expect 51-53% not 58%+
- Yankee Stadium unpredictability: Despite 1.1 park factor, short porch can break totals either way — high variance outcomes
- NYY still has enough depth to produce runs even without Judge/Bellinger/Stanton
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 57.4%
+0.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.9 pts
Total
8.5
+7.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.