SEA vs OAK prediction for September 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.6 - SEA 5.6. OAK is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
OAK
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SEA
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSEA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
OAK
468
Projected
OAK 5.6 — SEA 5.6
Actual
OAK 1 — SEA 19
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%96 mph22% whiff
SI19%96 mph9% whiff
SL15%87 mph32% whiff
Gage Jump L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%96 mph21% whiff
SL22%87 mph27% whiff
CU10%82 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
78°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
4.05ERA
4.20FIP
8.67K/9
3.36BB/9
1.33WHIP
OAK
5.03ERA
4.35FIP
9.57K/9
4.66BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.2 runs
44.5% win
OAK F5
3.1 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
46.4%
YRFI
53.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Justin Sterner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.