SEA vs TEX prediction for July 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 5.8 - SEA 4.7. TEX is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
TEX
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
TEX
468
Projected
TEX 5.8 — SEA 4.7
Actual
TEX 4 — SEA 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%96 mph20% whiff
SL24%86 mph34% whiff
FS14%82 mph38% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph24% whiff
SL36%91 mph37% whiff
CH14%90 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
98°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.086 Total: 1.045
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.9 runs
38.1% win
TEX F5
3.4 runs
50.0% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
44.0%
YRFI
56.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
TEX8 injured
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →