SF vs ATL prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.8 - SF 4.2. ATL is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
ATL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLSF
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
ATL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI36%93 mph9% whiff
CU28%77 mph36% whiff
CH19%87 mph31% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
CH33%82 mph29% whiff
SI30%90 mph7% whiff
FC22%86 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
74°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.012
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.6% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-8.6% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-7.4% EV
-128
ML HOME
-6.5% EV
-143
F5_ML AWAY
-3.1% EV
+102
NRFI NRFI
+2.0% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.2 runs
40.4% win
ATL F5
2.5 runs
43.1% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
60.2%
YRFI
39.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Harris II CFDAY-TO-DAY
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Kinley RP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE45.3% WR (n=107)
Even matchup with no material edge. Both pitchers B- grade, similar K rates. ATL home field advantage offset by SF away underdog resilience. Market pricing correct.
Key Factors
- Pitcher grades identical (B-, 0.427 vs 0.439 scores) — no SP mismatch or advantage
- Roupp K rate 10.0 vs Perez 7.4 shows Roupp slightly more strikeout-prone, but minor difference
- Neutral weather (74.5F) and park factor 1.0 remove environmental edges
- NRFI edge +2.0% below actionable 8% threshold — not tradable
- Away ML zone RED (45.3% WR); SF away side inherently weak
Risk Factors
- Away ML zone RED; even neutral edge becomes negative when zone profitability applied
- ATL missing Ronald Acuna Jr. (10-day hamstring) and Michael Harris (DTD back) — OF depth marginal but not decisive
RED ZONENEUTRAL MATCHUP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 54.6%
+0.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.6 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →