SF vs LAD prediction for September 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.2 - SF 3.4. LAD is favored with a 74.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
LAD
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSF
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 79.3% (3,988 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.2 — SF 3.4
Actual
LAD 8 — SF 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cesar Perdomo L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph22% whiff
CH30%87 mph26% whiff
SL24%86 mph24% whiff
Tyler Glasnow R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%95 mph14% whiff
KC22%80 mph53% whiff
SI20%96 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
70°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.027
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.52ERA
4.61FIP
7.00K/9
4.45BB/9
1.48WHIP
LAD
4.01ERA
3.90FIP
9.98K/9
3.98BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
27.2% win
LAD F5
3.0 runs
56.3% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Nate Furman 2B10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Randy Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Devers 1B60-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Shohei Ohtani DH15-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SPDAY-TO-DAY
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Edgardo Henriquez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.