SF vs LAD prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.6 - SF 3.6. LAD is favored with a 77.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
LAD
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSF
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 79.8% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
LAD
468
Projected
LAD 5.6 — SF 3.6
Actual
LAD 10 — SF 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yunior Marte R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF52%93 mph6% whiff
SL38%85 mph34% whiff
FS10%82 mph30% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%97 mph21% whiff
CH26%88 mph46% whiff
SI18%97 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
73°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.61ERA
4.71FIP
7.05K/9
4.45BB/9
1.49WHIP
LAD
3.99ERA
3.88FIP
10.00K/9
3.96BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
27.4% win
LAD F5
3.2 runs
58.0% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Bryce Eldridge DHDAY-TO-DAY
Nate Furman 2B10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Randy Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Devers 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Shohei Ohtani DH15-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SPDAY-TO-DAY
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Edgardo Henriquez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.