STL vs CHC prediction for August 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.3 - STL 3.2. CHC is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
CHC
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSTL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.3% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
CHC
246
Projected
CHC 4.3 — STL 3.2
Actual
CHC 3 — STL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph35% whiff
CU16%80 mph35% whiff
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI50%94 mph11% whiff
ST20%82 mph27% whiff
CH15%89 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
74°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.998
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.26ERA
4.37FIP
7.95K/9
4.28BB/9
1.36WHIP
CHC
4.05ERA
4.58FIP
8.98K/9
3.95BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.5 runs
27.2% win
CHC F5
2.6 runs
55.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
60.8%
YRFI
39.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.