ARI vs ATL prediction for August 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 5.1 - ARI 4.5. ATL is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
ATL
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ARI
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLARI
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
346
ATL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%93 mph10% whiff
SI19%93 mph7% whiff
CH16%87 mph24% whiff
Chris Sale L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%96 mph23% whiff
SL39%79 mph38% whiff
CH11%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
95°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.090 Total: 1.047
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.56ERA
3.70FIP
7.73K/9
3.09BB/9
1.20WHIP
ATL
2.88ERA
3.45FIP
9.79K/9
3.18BB/9
1.09WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.4 runs
37.5% win
ATL F5
2.9 runs
49.2% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
49.9%
YRFI
50.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.