WSH vs NYM prediction for August 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.4 - WSH 3.5. WSH is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
NYM
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMWSH
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
245
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.4 — WSH 3.5
Actual
NYM 4 — WSH 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU30%83 mph31% whiff
FF28%92 mph9% whiff
SL24%84 mph37% whiff
Robert Stock R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC33%91 mph21% whiff
SI26%94 mph17% whiff
FF21%96 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
82°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.025
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.38ERA
5.16FIP
8.76K/9
4.59BB/9
1.52WHIP
NYM
4.49ERA
4.48FIP
9.18K/9
4.38BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.0 runs
44.9% win
NYM F5
1.7 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.5%
YRFI
38.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.