FINAL: PIT 8 — BOS 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 3.6 - BOS 3.9 (BOS at 50.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
PIT
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITBOS
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 3.6 — BOS 3.9
Actual
PIT 8 — BOS 4
Pick Results
BOS @ PIT NRFInrfiWIN+0.80u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph19% whiff
CH25%83 mph32% whiff
SI25%92 mph6% whiff
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%98 mph20% whiff
SL21%91 mph27% whiff
CH16%92 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
81°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.42ERA
3.53FIP
9.68K/9
3.13BB/9
1.24WHIP
PIT
3.46ERA
3.67FIP
9.88K/9
4.18BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-14.9% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+9.2% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.0% EV
+138
NRFI NRFI
+6.9% EV
-125
F5_ML AWAY
-6.0% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+5.9% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.0 runs
42.2% win
PIT F5
1.9 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.2%
YRFI
36.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.482 | Barrel: 17.7% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS23.7%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.95x
Bryan Reynolds PIT23.6%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT6 injured
Yohan Ramirez RPPATERNITY
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
historically well-supported NRFI edge (+6.9%, 59.4% prob) plus F5 UNDER edge (+9.2%, 59.7% prob) make this a clean early-inning suppression play; full-game ML is a coin flip so avoid side conviction there.
Key Factors
- Pitching: Jake Bennett (BOS, 3.42 ERA, 4.6% BB rate, B- grade) has better control than Bubba Chandler (PIT, 4.6 ERA, 12.0% BB rate, C+ grade)
- NRFI edge +6.9% (59.4% prob) sits historically well-supported with 57.8% historical WR across 169 tracked bets
- F5 UNDER 4.5 edge +9.2% (59.7% prob) is the strongest signal on this game
- Full-game total UNDER edge +5.9% (55.4% prob) supports the quiet-game thesis but is secondary to NRFI/F5
Risk Factors
- Chandler's elevated 12.0% BB rate creates volatility risk even in a projected low-scoring script
- No bullpen fatigue data available for either team to confirm late-game holds
- Model gives BOS only 50.7% win prob (away favorite) despite Bennett's edge — ML has no clear conviction
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 50.7%
-1.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.9 pts
Total
8.0
+5.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.