STL vs CIN prediction for August 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 5.1 - STL 4.5. CIN is favored with a 54.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
CIN
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINSTL
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (3,318 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
346
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 5.1 — STL 4.5
Actual
CIN 6 — STL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%94 mph38% whiff
SL22%86 mph37% whiff
CH16%83 mph29% whiff
Kent Emanuel R
CIN
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
73°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.035
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.25ERA
4.40FIP
7.84K/9
4.25BB/9
1.36WHIP
CIN
4.49ERA
4.89FIP
8.87K/9
4.79BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.4 runs
36.4% win
CIN F5
2.9 runs
49.5% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
54.0%
YRFI
46.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
CIN6 injured
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.