STL vs LAA prediction for July 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 5.5 - STL 4.0. LAA is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
LAA
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
STL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAASTL
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (2,971 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
LAA
467
Projected
LAA 5.5 — STL 4.0
Actual
LAA 5 — STL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%96 mph11% whiff
SL20%89 mph25% whiff
SI13%95 mph19% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph18% whiff
SL33%86 mph32% whiff
CU11%72 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
86°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.036
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.1 runs
29.9% win
LAA F5
3.4 runs
57.2% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL3 injured
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
LAA8 injured
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Model 54.7% LAA away (vs market 50.5%) with +8.3% ML edge — confirmed by strong run-line +28.4% edge for LAA -1.5 (49.8% prob). SP: Urenña (C+, 3.11 ERA, B- stuff 0.445, command 0.37 low) vs Liberatore (B-, TBD ERA, B grade command 0.6 elite, 8.3 K/9) — clear Liberatore/LAA advantage. Weather 85.6F warm + 6mph tail wind + Angel Stadium neutral park = slight overs lean. LAA bullpen (4.26 ERA) vs STL (4.3 ERA) — essentially equal. Model run-line edge 28.4% massive, but ML edge only 8.3% suggests model more confident on cover than win. 8% edge reasonable for away team with better SP.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch LAA: Liberatore (B-, TBD ERA, command 0.6 elite, 8.3 K/9) beats Urenña (C+, 3.11 ERA, command 0.37 very low) — clear LAA pitching advantage ~0.5-0.7 runs
- Liberatore elite command (0.6) vs Urenña weak command (0.37) = significant control edge
- Weather supports LAA: 85.6F warm + 6mph tail wind = +0.3-0.4 runs; Angel Stadium neutral baseline
- Run-line edge +28.4% (49.8% LAA -1.5 prob) massive, suggests model very confident on LAA cover
- Away team with better pitching + weather support + market undervaluing = classic value spot
Risk Factors
- ML edge only 8.3% modest compared to run-line edge 28.4% — suggests cover confidence much higher than win probability, possible model inconsistency
- Liberatore TBD ERA (new starter data) increases uncertainty vs established Urenña 3.11 ERA
- STL home field advantage traditionally weak in NL but still ~1-2% edge not fully accounted
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →