TB vs PHI prediction for September 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.5 - TB 4.1. TB is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
PHI
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHITB
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
PHI
245
Projected
PHI 3.5 — TB 4.1
Actual
PHI 1 — TB 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%88 mph32% whiff
CH22%91 mph39% whiff
SI22%95 mph10% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC33%78 mph40% whiff
FF24%92 mph12% whiff
SI18%92 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
58°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.958 Total: 0.974
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.39ERA
3.77FIP
9.03K/9
2.69BB/9
1.11WHIP
PHI
4.43ERA
3.93FIP
10.10K/9
3.50BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.4 runs
46.8% win
PHI F5
2.0 runs
36.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Chandler Simpson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Wells RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Luis Arraez 2BOUT
Jesus Luzardo SP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.