TOR vs SF prediction for July 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.6 - TOR 2.4. SF is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 4.9 total runs.
SF
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
2.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFTOR
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
024
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.6 — TOR 2.4
Actual
SF 3 — TOR 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF36%98 mph26% whiff
SL29%89 mph42% whiff
CH11%84 mph57% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
SI32%92 mph10% whiff
CH24%86 mph27% whiff
ST19%84 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
59°F19 mph wind
HR: 0.928 Total: 0.957
15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-46.8% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+39.7% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.4% EV
-179
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.0% EV
+146
F5 UNDER 4.5
+20.7% EV
-141
F5_ML AWAY
-11.0% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.1 runs
34.1% win
SF F5
1.4 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
2.5
NRFI
69.1%
YRFI
30.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.9
Over 0.5 HR
60%
Over 1.5 HR
24%
No HR
40%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Braydon Fisher RPBEREAVEMENT
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=317)
Pitcher mismatch AGAINST model call (Cease A-, 36% K-rate elite vs Webb C+, 20.4% K-rate weak) favors away TOR, but Oracle Park suppression (0.88x park factor, cold 58.9°F, 15 mph wind blowing in — strongest headwind on slate, -15.0 mph net) dominates all other factors — creates 39.7% UNDER edge (71.3% model prob) — LEAN UNDER despite pitcher advantage to away, weather/park are KING in pitcher parks.
Key Factors
- Weather DOMINATES: 58.9°F + 18.6 mph wind at 286° (15 mph headwind net) = coldest, windiest game on slate; estimated -2.0 to -2.5 run suppression
- Park factor Oracle 0.88x = -12% runs; combined with weather creates brutal run environment
- Pitcher advantage to away TOR: Cease (A-, 36% K-rate, elite) >> Webb (C+, 20.4% K-rate) — but weather/park overwhelm pitcher impact
- Model 4.92 total is realistic for Oracle + cold + wind; market 7.5 is 2.5+ runs too high
- 39.7% edge is second-largest on slate; YELLOW zone warning applies, but direction (weather/park) is historically strong
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone + 39.7% edge is high-edge pattern; realized WR may be 55-60% not 71.3%
- Elite pitcher (Cease) could suppress scoring even in better conditions; if he goes deep, model succeeds despite weather
- Bay area weather can be variable; if wind dies down or temp rises late, overs could spike
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 53.8%
-35.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.4 pts
Total
7.5
+39.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →