WSH vs STL prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.2 - WSH 4.2. STL is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
STL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLWSH
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.2 — WSH 4.2
Actual
STL 5 — WSH 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU31%83 mph32% whiff
FF28%92 mph9% whiff
SL21%84 mph34% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%92 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph27% whiff
SI16%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
96°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.031
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.68ERA
5.25FIP
8.88K/9
4.92BB/9
1.55WHIP
STL
4.48ERA
4.26FIP
8.35K/9
4.18BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.3 runs
41.2% win
STL F5
2.4 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL5 injured
Joshua Baez LF10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.