Alexandre Muller vs Alexander Shevchenko prediction for July 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alexander Shevchenko 0 - Alexandre Muller 0. Alexander Shevchenko is favored with a 51.2% win probability.
Alexander Shevchenko
1552
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Alexandre Muller
1507
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Alexander ShevchenkoAlexandre Muller
Hard
Surface
Swiss Open Gstaad
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (11,887 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Swiss Open Gstaad
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alexandre Muller
Alexander Shevchenko
Alexander Shevchenko leads by 44 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Alexandre Muller SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Alexander Shevchenko SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
● Alexandre Muller has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Alexandre Muller ML
+120
Model: 49%
Edge: +3.3%
Alexander Shevchenko ML
-145
Model: 51%
Edge: -7.9%
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexander Shevchenko has a moderate 44-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Alexandre Muller has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexander Shevchenko 51.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →