Jaime Faria vs Stan Wawrinka prediction for July 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Stan Wawrinka 0 - Jaime Faria 0. Jaime Faria is favored with a 59.3% win probability.
Stan Wawrinka
1420
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Jaime Faria
1474
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Stan WawrinkaJaime Faria
Hard
Surface
Swiss Open Gstaad
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (11,887 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Swiss Open Gstaad
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jaime Faria
Stan Wawrinka
Jaime Faria leads by 54 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Jaime Faria SPW
67.3%
Above tour avg
Stan Wawrinka SPW
64.7%
Above tour avg
● Jaime Faria has a slight serve edge (+2.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jaime Faria ML
-225
Model: 59%
Edge: -10.0%
Stan Wawrinka ML
+185
Model: 41%
Edge: +5.6%
Model Projection
Stan Wawrinka ML +185 · +5.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jaime Faria has a moderate 54-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jaime Faria has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaime Faria 59.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →