Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov prediction for July 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Timofey Skatov 0 - Raphael Collignon 0. Raphael Collignon is favored with a 50.9% win probability.
Timofey Skatov
1406
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Raphael Collignon
1623
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Timofey SkatovRaphael Collignon
Hard
Surface
Swiss Open Gstaad
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (11,887 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Swiss Open Gstaad
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Raphael Collignon
Timofey Skatov
Raphael Collignon leads by 217 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Raphael Collignon SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
Timofey Skatov SPW
64.3%
Above tour avg
● Timofey Skatov has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Raphael Collignon ML
-528
Model: 51%
Edge: -33.2%
Timofey Skatov ML
+432
Model: 49%
Edge: +30.3%
Model Projection
Timofey Skatov ML +432 · +30.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon holds a commanding 217-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Timofey Skatov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raphael Collignon 50.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →