Castillo, Ricky vs Smotherman, Austin prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smotherman, Austin 0 - Castillo, Ricky 86. Castillo, Ricky is favored with a 61.7% win probability. The spread is 0.14.
Smotherman, Austin
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Castillo, Ricky
+0.25
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smotherman, AustinCastillo, Ricky
-110
Best Odds
+17.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Castillo, Ricky
Strokes Gained
+0.25/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.231 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Castillo, Ricky
+0.25 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Castillo, Ricky
Smotherman, Austin
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.7%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+17.8%
Castillo, Ricky vs Smotherman, Austin: Model gives Castillo, Ricky 61.7% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+17.8% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 86.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Castillo, Ricky 61.7%
+17.8 pts
Spread
+0.1
+17.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →