Hall, Harry vs Smalley, Alex prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 36 - Hall, Harry 69. Hall, Harry is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The spread is -0.21.
Smalley, Alex
+1.15
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Hall, Harry
+0.95
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexHall, Harry
+100
Best Odds
+17.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hall, Harry
626976
Smalley, Alex
293643
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Hall, Harry
Strokes Gained
+0.95/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.216 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Hall, Harry
+0.95 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
-0.21 SG/round
tight edge for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+1.15 SG
EF 36th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.7%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+17.9%
Hall, Harry vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Hall, Harry 59.7% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+19.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.21 SG/round. Expected finish: 69. AI: poor recent form.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hall, Harry 59.7%
+17.9 pts
Spread
-0.2
+17.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →