PGA Tour Golf

Clanton, Luke vs Horschel, Billy Prediction

May 28, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Clanton, Luke vs Horschel, Billy prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Horschel, Billy 0 - Clanton, Luke 97. Clanton, Luke is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The spread is -0.5.

Horschel, Billy
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Clanton, Luke
-0.60
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
46.0%
54.0%
Horschel, BillyClanton, Luke
+126
Best Odds
+22.0%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing

Tournament Context

Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)

Player Profile — Clanton, Luke

Strokes Gained
-0.60/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.066 SG adj
Expected Finish
97th / 132

Matchup Analysis

Clanton, Luke
-0.60 SG
EF 97th
Skill Gap
-0.50 SG/round
meaningful edge for Horschel, Billy
Horschel, Billy
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
54.0%
Books Say
44.2%
Edge
+22.0%

Clanton, Luke vs Horschel, Billy: Model gives Clanton, Luke 54.0% win probability vs 44.2% implied (+22.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.50 SG/round. Expected finish: 97.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Clanton, Luke 54.0%
+22.0 pts
Spread
-0.5
+22.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Golf 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Golf 2026 season report card.

Want Premium Predictions?

Get full access to all picks, detailed game-by-game analysis, and Kelly-optimized unit sizing across 9 leagues.

Go Premium Free Picks