Hodges, Lee vs Ryder, Sam prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ryder, Sam 0 - Hodges, Lee 75. Hodges, Lee is favored with a 63.9% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Ryder, Sam
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Hodges, Lee
-0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Ryder, SamHodges, Lee
-116
Best Odds
+19.1%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Hodges, Lee
Strokes Gained
-0.04/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.474 SG adj
Expected Finish
75th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Hodges, Lee
-0.04 SG
EF 75th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Ryder, Sam
Ryder, Sam
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.9%
Books Say
53.7%
Edge
+19.1%
Hodges, Lee vs Ryder, Sam: Model gives Hodges, Lee 63.9% win probability vs 53.7% implied (+19.1% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 75.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hodges, Lee 63.9%
+19.1 pts
Spread
-0.1
+19.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →