FINAL: LAD 3 — ARI 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 4.7 - ARI 3.0 (LAD at 60.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
LAD
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
ARI
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADARI
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARI W5LAD L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.9% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 4.7 — ARI 3.0
Actual
LAD 3 — ARI 9
Pick Results
ARI @ LAD NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
FF23%93 mph11% whiff
SI21%93 mph9% whiff
CU19%82 mph36% whiff
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
FS27%92 mph31% whiff
FF27%96 mph24% whiff
CU14%77 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
75°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.002
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-51.1% EV
-127
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-31.5% EV
+104
F5_ML AWAY
-25.4% EV
+154
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+18.2% EV
-128
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+9.8% EV
+105
ML HOME
-6.7% EV
-204
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.4 runs
23.0% win
LAD F5
3.0 runs
62.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Pfaadt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Enrique Hernandez 1B10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 60.9%
+9.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+9.8 pts
Total
9.5
+18.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →