ARI vs STL prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.6 - ARI 4.2. STL is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
STL
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ARI
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLARI
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
STL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mitch Bratt L
ARI
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF33%94 mph11% whiff
SL22%86 mph35% whiff
CU16%79 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
84°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.002
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.4% EV
-189
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-16.7% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.8% EV
+155
ML AWAY
-9.5% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+7.7% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-6.8% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.4 runs
41.0% win
STL F5
2.7 runs
46.6% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Corbin Carroll ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Ketel Marte ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Gabriel Moreno ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.170 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mitch Bratt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP15-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Bryan Torres LFDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=235)
DATA INTEGRITY: Away pitcher Mitch Bratt has completely missing profile (k_rate=0, bb_rate=0, ERA=N/A, pitch_mix empty). Cannot assess pitcher quality gap. Home Liberatore has B- grade (21.2% K-rate), so any assessment of away advantage/disadvantage is impossible. TOTAL UNDER 9.0 shows 7.7% edge, but without knowing away pitcher profile, confidence in totals play is also compromised.
Key Factors
- DATA MISSING: Mitch Bratt (away pitcher) has k_rate=0, bb_rate=0, ERA=N/A, pitch_mix={}. Profile completely absent.
Risk Factors
- Cannot assess away pitcher quality, making any side prediction unreliable
DATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 55.0%
-29.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.4 pts
Total
9.0
+7.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →