FINAL: BAL 3 — ATL 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 3.2 - ATL 4.8 (ATL at 56.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
BAL
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ATL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALATL
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
BAL
135
Projected
BAL 3.2 — ATL 4.8
Actual
BAL 3 — ATL 2
Pick Results
ATL @ BAL NRFInrfiWIN+0.98u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Elder R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI27%91 mph11% whiff
SL26%83 mph28% whiff
FF23%93 mph14% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%94 mph18% whiff
FS20%85 mph22% whiff
SL14%84 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
80°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.9% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-27.4% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+23.2% EV
+162
F5_ML HOME
-21.5% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+18.9% EV
-108
ML HOME
-13.1% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.5 runs
50.3% win
BAL F5
1.8 runs
32.4% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL29.7%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Brandon Young (BAL, C+, 6.7 K/9, weaker arm) vs Bryce Elder (ATL, B-, 7.5 K/9, moderate arm) — ATL SP advantage inverted by BAL bullpen elite (closer 1.15 ERA) vs ATL bullpen elite (closer 1.39 ERA), but model sees low-score environment via 61.6% UNDER 9.0 probability (18.9% edge); weather neutral (80F), park +3% slight over bias offset by pitcher advantage.
Key Factors
- SP advantage ATL (Elder 7.5 K/9 vs Young 6.7 K/9), but market prices BAL as home favorite (-116 vs -102 away) — indicates market undervaluing ATL edge
- Bullpen: BAL 4.34 ERA (weak, closer 3.66) vs ATL 2.18 ERA (elite, closer 1.15) — huge bullpen advantage ATL despite recent injuries
- Model UNDER 9.0 at 18.9% edge (61.6% prob) — one of slate's cleaner edges on defensive/bullpen grounds
- ATL injuries (Acuna out, Murphy out) = -2-3% offensive quality but bullpen elite carries team
- Run line spread: Model 1.48 (ATL by 1.5) vs market 1.5 (BAL by 1.5) — model essentially agrees run line, but UNDER is cleaner lean
Risk Factors
- High edge (18.9%) historically shows worst WR — calibration warning applies
- ATL road team (away) with injuries — typically underperforms by 2-3% in modeling
- BAL -116 home implies sharp backing; market confidence in BAL offense
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 56.1%
-49.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.9 pts
Total
9.0
+18.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →