FINAL: MIA 2 — SD 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 5.0 - SD 4.8 (MIA at 50.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
MIA
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SD
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASD
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W5MIA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
357
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 5.0 — SD 4.8
Actual
MIA 2 — SD 7
Pick Results
SD @ MIA F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Vásquez R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph17% whiff
FC23%90 mph18% whiff
SI13%95 mph10% whiff
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%98 mph21% whiff
SL15%88 mph43% whiff
ST14%83 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
87°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.006
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.6% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-18.5% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-13.1% EV
-161
F5 OVER 4.5
+9.9% EV
-108
ML HOME
-9.9% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+9.5% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.9 runs
42.8% win
MIA F5
3.0 runs
44.2% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Manny Machado SD30.0%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x
Ty France SD30.0%
ISO: 0.090 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x
Griffin Conine MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Hot weather (87F, Miami retractable dome) and Eury Pérez (10.4 K/9, B-grade, high K) vs Randy Vásquez (7.0 K/9, B-, weaker stuff) suggests slight over lean; model 9.81 total vs 8.0 market = 1.81 edge (9.5% edge prob), but historical support WR 50.1% — marginal confidence.
Key Factors
- Temperature 87F hot (adds 0.7 runs per weather data) + retractable dome closed = minimal wind suppression (neutral net)
- Pérez 10.4 K/9, B-grade vs Vásquez 7.0 K/9, weaker — slight SP advantage SD (but not dominant)
- Bullpen: MIA 3.85 ERA (solid), SD 3.15 ERA (excellent) — SD bullpen edge ~0.7 ERA advantage
- Model 9.81 vs market 8.0 = 1.81 run gap, but model only 57.3% prob vs market 58.8% prob — inverted signal
- NRFI: 48% prob (coin flip); YRFI 52% — early-inning volatility suggests wait for 2nd/3rd inning data
Risk Factors
- Model says OVER but team choice (away SD) only 49% ML prob — suggests over edge is MIA runs not SD
- Retractable dome unknown status (open/closed affects weather impact) — assume closed (retractable MIA typical)
- historical support historical WR 50.1% suggests no real edge here
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 50.9%
-4.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.0 pts
Total
8.0
+9.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →