FINAL: TB 3 — CLE 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 4.3 - CLE 3.7 (TB at 54.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
TB
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCLE
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLE L5TB
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
TB
246
Projected
TB 4.3 — CLE 3.7
Actual
TB 3 — CLE 0
Pick Results
CLE @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.40u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%86 mph32% whiff
SI24%93 mph15% whiff
FF22%94 mph13% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph8% whiff
CH27%78 mph31% whiff
FC21%89 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
89°F8 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-26.5% EV
-196
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.9% EV
+162
F5_ML AWAY
-15.8% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-12.9% EV
-106
ML AWAY
-5.5% EV
+106
F5_ML HOME
+5.1% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.8 runs
34.0% win
TB F5
2.4 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.9%
YRFI
40.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Junior Caminero TB29.9%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB23.4%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Manzardo CLE18.6%
ISO: 0.168 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE1 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Nick Martinez (TB, C+ grade, 5.4 K/9, low-K arm, no ERA data) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE, B- grade, 7.6 K/9) shows marginal SP advantage CLE; indoor (Tropicana dome, weather neutral baseline); model edges small (F5_ML +5.1%, NRFI +4.0%, UNDER +3.5%) — all historical supports yellow/low conviction.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Bibee (7.6 K/9, B-) vs Martinez (5.4 K/9, C+) — CLE K-rate edge but neither dominant
- Indoor dome (Tropicana): weather neutral, no wind effects, climate controlled — baseline condition
- TB bullpen 4.35 ERA (middle), CLE bullpen 3.52 ERA (solid) — CLE slightly better relief
- Model edges all <5.5%: F5_ML +5.1%, NRFI +4.0%, UNDER +3.5% — marginal across board
- historical support WR 50.1% on totals — no true edge identified
Risk Factors
- Market correctly prices TB/CLE as near-toss-up (TB -123, model 54.1%) — no mispricing
- Small edges historically underperform (see calibration: 0-5% edge buckets win ~51% long-term)
- K-prop on Martinez (5.4 K/9 mean, 3.4 mean Ks) very low — avoids
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 54.6%
-26.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-26.5 pts
Total
8.0
+3.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →