CHC vs PIT prediction for July 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.7 - CHC 4.2. PIT is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
PIT
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCHC
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 4.7 — CHC 4.2
Actual
PIT 0 — CHC 11
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%92 mph18% whiff
FS34%83 mph40% whiff
ST15%81 mph32% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph27% whiff
ST15%84 mph27% whiff
CH15%89 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
85°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.059 Total: 1.031
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.1 runs
34.9% win
PIT F5
2.8 runs
50.0% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Trent Thornton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Rafael Flores Jr. C7-DAY IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Paul Skenes (PIT, B grade, 10.9 K/9 high-K arm, elite prospect) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC, B grade, 8.0 K/9, 4.22 ERA recent) presents moderate SP advantage PIT; model projections modest (PIT ML -2.7% edge, OVER +0.1% effectively flat); weather 85F warm, thin air (park factor 1.0) adds 0.3 runs — marginal environment.
Key Factors
- Skenes (10.9 K/9, B, prospect elite arm) vs Imanaga (8.0 K/9, B, 4.22 ERA) — K-rate advantage PIT
- PIT bullpen 4.5 ERA vs CHC 4.04 ERA — CHC slightly better relief (mild advantage away)
- Weather 85F warm (adds 0.3 runs per model), PNC Park thin air (1.0 factor, but +2.5 mph tail wind, density 1909) — slight over lean but not dominant
- Model edges minimal: PIT ML -2.7%, OVER +0% (effectively coin-flip), F5 OVER +1.9% — all historically mixeds
- Both teams mid-tier offensive profiles
Risk Factors
- Model ML edge -2.7% is directional disadvantage (inverted signal, suggests market correct)
- historically mixed historical WR 50.1% on totals — no edge identified
- Imanaga 4.22 ERA may reflect mid-season struggles, but recent arm quality unknown
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →