FINAL: DET 2 — KC 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 3.3 - KC 3.6 (KC at 50.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
DET
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETKC
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KCDET L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.2% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.3 — KC 3.6
Actual
DET 2 — KC 3
Pick Results
KC @ DET NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Wacha R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph18% whiff
CH23%81 mph26% whiff
FC16%89 mph12% whiff
Casey Mize R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%94 mph24% whiff
SL26%88 mph27% whiff
FS24%88 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
81°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.2% EV
-154
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-26.5% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-22.1% EV
+128
F5_ML HOME
-17.5% EV
-182
ML HOME
-15.5% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+15.1% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.8 runs
41.0% win
DET F5
1.7 runs
38.7% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
62.5%
YRFI
37.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Riley Greene DET27.6%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Carter Jensen KC22.5%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kerry Carpenter DET22.3%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Jac Caglianone RFDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP60-DAY-IL
Bobby Witt Jr. SS10-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Casey Mize (3.01 ERA, 8.0 K/9, B-grade stuff) significantly outmatches Michael Wacha (N/A ERA, 7.1 K/9, C-grade command) — model's 63.2% UNDER 8.5 (15.1% edge) exploits market overvaluation of scoring; weather neutral (81F, slight tail wind).
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Mize 3.01 ERA, 25.1% K-rate vs Wacha N/A ERA — ace vs back-end arms
- Model projects 6.89 total vs market 8.5 — 1.61 run gap reflects undervaluing of SP quality difference
- DET bullpen 4.22 ERA (solid) vs KC 4.34 ERA (similar) — bullpen neutral, SP-driven game
- Comerica neutral park (1.0 factor), 81F warm (adds 0.2 runs), light tail wind (neutral) — weather slight over bias not present
- UNDER edge 15.1% high but historical support historical WR 50.1% on total markets (327 n) — indicates model-market gap is real, not noise
Risk Factors
- High edge (15.1%) historically correlated with worse WR (inverse edge-outcome relationship) — model may be overconfident
- Wacha ERA N/A suggests limited recent data — could be coming off injury/adjustment, unknown upside
- KC bullpen last-3-days usage unknown — possible fatigue not priced
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 50.3%
-22.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-22.1 pts
Total
8.5
+15.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →