FINAL: PHI 1 — NYY 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.8 - NYY 4.7 (PHI at 52.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
PHI
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYY
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYY
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY W5PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.8 — NYY 4.7
Actual
PHI 1 — NYY 3
Pick Results
NYY @ PHI F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%96 mph16% whiff
CH24%86 mph35% whiff
ST20%81 mph42% whiff
Tim Mayza L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI60%94 mph17% whiff
SL33%87 mph27% whiff
FF4%95 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
82°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.1% EV
-154
F5_ML AWAY
-17.5% EV
-132
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.9% EV
+128
ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
-127
F5_ML HOME
+9.4% EV
+106
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-7.5% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
37.1% win
PHI F5
3.0 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.9%
YRFI
48.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Tim Mayza | Park: 1.02x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.02x
Amed Rosario NYY27.3%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 6.0% | vs Tim Mayza | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Tim Mayza
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY4 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
PHI7 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Stubbs C10-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Tim Mayza (PHI LHP, 8.7 K/9, B- grade, no ERA data) vs Ryan Weathers (NYY LHP, 9.8 K/9, B grade) creates near-coin-flip SP matchup; model edges marginal across all markets (F5_ML +9.4%, ML PHI +3.9%), yet recent history shows ML home picks a supportive track record — conflicting signals.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Mayza 8.7 K/9 vs Weathers 9.8 K/9 — nearly identical, slight Weathers edge on K-rate
- No dominant pitcher advantage — game is offensive/lineup matchup, not SP-driven
- Temperature 81.9F warm (adds 0.2 run), wind minimal (6.3mph) — weather neutral
- PHI given +108 (underdog) despite home field — implies sharp money on PHI OR market adjusting for NYY travel
- historical support historical WR (PHI ML): 54.2% (home combo) — reasonable but sample n=115
Risk Factors
- Recent 30-day home ML picks: a supportive track record (combo | home | favorite, n=22) — recent home picks TERRIBLE
- Recent 30-day home ML picks: only 1W-7L — strong avoid home ML per calibration data
- Playbook: market correctly prices this as coin-flip; edges <3.9% historically underperform
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 52.1%
-27.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.1 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →