FINAL: NYM 14 — ATL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 3.2 - ATL 4.7 (ATL at 56.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
NYM
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ATL
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMATL
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.2 — ATL 4.7
Actual
NYM 14 — ATL 3
Pick Results
ATL @ NYM NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Martín Pérez L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%89 mph8% whiff
CH30%82 mph30% whiff
FC24%85 mph19% whiff
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC41%87 mph21% whiff
FF27%92 mph13% whiff
ST15%80 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
78°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.034
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-50.9% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-28.3% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-22.4% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+20.6% EV
+149
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+18.2% EV
-115
ML HOME
-13.6% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.5 runs
51.8% win
NYM F5
1.7 runs
31.3% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
60.1%
YRFI
39.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.96x
Matt Olson ATL29.9%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.96x
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL27.3%
ISO: 0.157 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Zac Thornton
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 56.9%
-50.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-50.9 pts
Total
9.0
+18.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →