FINAL: MIA 8 — PHI 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 4.0 - PHI 3.9 (MIA at 51.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
MIA
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.0 — PHI 3.9
Actual
MIA 8 — PHI 7
Pick Results
PHI @ MIA NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph25% whiff
FS16%87 mph44% whiff
SI15%95 mph7% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph5% whiff
ST24%84 mph33% whiff
FS23%87 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
83°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-24.8% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
+23.5% EV
+168
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.7% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-20.7% EV
-213
ML HOME
+16.9% EV
+152
ML AWAY
-16.4% EV
-179
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
39.5% win
MIA F5
2.1 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Tyler Phillips | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Griffin Conine MIA29.8%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Heriberto Hernández MIA26.2%
ISO: 0.109 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Stubbs C10-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIA8 injured
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Michael Petersen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 51.2%
-24.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-24.8 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →