FINAL: WSH 2 — TOR 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 5.8 - TOR 3.9 (WSH at 59.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
WSH
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
TOR
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHTOR
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TOR W4WSH
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
WSH
468
Projected
WSH 5.8 — TOR 3.9
Actual
WSH 2 — TOR 3
Pick Results
TOR @ WSH NRFInrfiWIN+0.55u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%93 mph14% whiff
SL22%86 mph19% whiff
CH16%84 mph13% whiff
Eddy Yean R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI58%98 mph12% whiff
CH28%90 mph15% whiff
SL10%89 mph0% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
91°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-35.1% EV
+150
F5_ML AWAY
-28.8% EV
+122
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-15.1% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
+12.7% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-12.7% EV
-182
ML AWAY
-12.0% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.0 runs
23.4% win
WSH F5
3.9 runs
64.8% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
46.6%
YRFI
53.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Max Scherzer | Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Max Scherzer | Platoon: 1.12x
Dylan Crews WSH28.0%
ISO: 0.156 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Max Scherzer
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Scherzer
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Eddy Yean
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF60-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP15-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP60-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 59.5%
-12.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-12.7 pts
Total
10.0
+4.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →