FINAL: DET 5 — BAL 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 4.1 - BAL 3.3 (DET at 54.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
DET
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETBAL
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BALDET L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
135
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.1 — BAL 3.3
Actual
DET 5 — BAL 8
Pick Results
BAL @ DET NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%95 mph8% whiff
SL27%87 mph34% whiff
CU22%85 mph40% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph12% whiff
SI23%95 mph7% whiff
SL18%86 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
91°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.008
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.6% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-20.9% EV
-111
F5_ML AWAY
-20.8% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.8% EV
+162
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+12.0% EV
-109
F5_ML HOME
+8.3% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
1.6 runs
32.1% win
DET F5
2.4 runs
50.1% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.6%
YRFI
41.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x
Spencer Torkelson DET29.9%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET29.6%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 54.8%
-27.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.6 pts
Total
8.5
+12.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →