FINAL: STL 3 — CHC 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 3.0 - CHC 3.8 (CHC at 53.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
STL
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
CHC
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHC W4STL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.0 — CHC 3.8
Actual
STL 3 — CHC 7
Pick Results
CHC @ STL F5 UNDER 5.5f5LOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Peterson L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%92 mph12% whiff
FF24%92 mph18% whiff
SL24%86 mph28% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph35% whiff
CU16%80 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
79°F25 mph wind
HR: 0.918 Total: 0.950
thin air, 23mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.7% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-41.5% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+31.3% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+23.1% EV
+114
F5 UNDER 5.5
+19.3% EV
-128
F5_ML HOME
-16.6% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.1 runs
48.5% win
STL F5
1.6 runs
32.2% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
61.8%
YRFI
38.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC28.9%
ISO: 0.138 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Seiya Suzuki CHC24.6%
ISO: 0.146 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL24.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Riley O'Brien RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.6%
-44.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.7 pts
Total
9.5
+31.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →