FINAL: CWS 5 — NYY 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 2.9 - NYY 4.6 (NYY at 56.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
CWS
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY W5CWS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
CWS
135
Projected
CWS 2.9 — NYY 4.6
Actual
CWS 5 — NYY 9
Pick Results
NYY @ CWS F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-1.50u
NYY @ CWS F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Fried L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC23%92 mph25% whiff
SI22%93 mph16% whiff
FF18%95 mph22% whiff
Noah Schultz L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%95 mph20% whiff
SI24%95 mph8% whiff
FC20%90 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
75°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.005
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-48.2% EV
-141
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-20.1% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-18.3% EV
+124
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+10.4% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+8.5% EV
+117
ML HOME
-5.3% EV
+119
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
54.8% win
CWS F5
1.5 runs
27.9% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
19%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Noah Schultz | Park: 1.01x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Noah Schultz | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS29.8%
ISO: 0.078 | Barrel: 7.8% | vs Max Fried | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Noah Schultz
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 56.8%
-48.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-48.2 pts
Total
8.5
+10.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →