ATL vs NYY prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.1 - ATL 4.3. NYY is favored with a 56.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYY
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYATL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.0% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
NYY
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grant Holmes R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL36%85 mph38% whiff
FF29%94 mph11% whiff
SI12%93 mph14% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph30% whiff
FC26%95 mph20% whiff
SI20%98 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
92°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.079 Total: 1.043
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.87ERA
3.37FIP
9.76K/9
3.18BB/9
1.10WHIP
NYY
2.92ERA
3.90FIP
8.52K/9
3.51BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.4 runs
35.6% win
NYY F5
3.1 runs
50.8% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
50.0%
YRFI
50.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL7 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.