COL vs STL prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.0 - COL 4.5. COL is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
STL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
COL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCOL
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
346
STL
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH20%85 mph30% whiff
SI20%93 mph9% whiff
FF19%94 mph8% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
CH20%87 mph24% whiff
SI16%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
95°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.085 Total: 1.045
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.94ERA
4.30FIP
7.64K/9
3.88BB/9
1.49WHIP
STL
4.33ERA
4.34FIP
7.99K/9
4.18BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.5 runs
44.4% win
STL F5
2.3 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.