TOR vs PHI prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.9 - TOR 3.5. PHI is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
PHI
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHITOR
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
245
PHI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Bieber R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%92 mph12% whiff
CH20%88 mph19% whiff
KC19%83 mph30% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%86 mph46% whiff
FF24%97 mph13% whiff
SI20%96 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
87°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.18ERA
3.85FIP
7.74K/9
3.97BB/9
1.30WHIP
PHI
4.38ERA
3.83FIP
10.47K/9
3.57BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.8 runs
27.5% win
PHI F5
3.2 runs
58.6% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
George Springer DHDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Aaron Nola SPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Painter SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.