MLB Baseball

CLE vs CWS Prediction

August 10, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

CLE vs CWS prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 3.6 - CLE 3.3. CWS is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.

CWS
3.6
Projected Score
VS O/U 8.5
CLE
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
54.4%
45.6%
CWSCLE
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,135 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CLE
135
CWS
246

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF35% · 92
CU28% · 80
CH26% · 81
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%92 mph15% whiff
CU28%80 mph37% whiff
CH26%81 mph40% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF26% · 94
SI18% · 93
CU14% · 82
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph20% whiff
SI18%93 mph7% whiff
CU14%82 mph38% whiff

Weather Impact

Rate Field
85°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.010
thin air

Bullpen Comparison

CLE
3.68ERA
3.90FIP
9.88K/9
3.86BB/9
1.28WHIP
CWS
3.89ERA
4.20FIP
9.06K/9
4.51BB/9
1.37WHIP

Betting Edges

🔒
Edge Analysis
Available to premium members
Unlock

First 5 Innings & NRFI

CLE F5
1.7 runs
36.6% win
CWS F5
2.0 runs
43.0% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
60.7%
YRFI
39.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78

HR Spotlight

🔒
Home Run Analysis
Available to premium members
Unlock

Injury Report

CLE2 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy

AI Intelligence Analysis

🔒The written matchup analysis — thesis, key and risk factors, sharp-money read and the recommended action — is premium.Unlock

Edge Analysis

🔒
Edge Analysis
Available to premium members
Unlock
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

Want Premium Predictions?

Get full access to all picks, detailed game-by-game analysis, and Kelly-optimized unit sizing across 9 leagues.

Go Premium Free Picks

Free picks in your inbox every morning

The same free projections published here — Monte Carlo simulated, Kelly sized, delivered daily. Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.