NYM vs PIT prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.3 - NYM 3.6. PIT is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
PIT
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITNYM
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.0% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
PIT
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%91 mph19% whiff
ST30%76 mph29% whiff
SI21%90 mph7% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%98 mph20% whiff
SL35%90 mph35% whiff
CH12%93 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
81°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.37ERA
4.28FIP
9.16K/9
4.26BB/9
1.42WHIP
PIT
3.43ERA
3.62FIP
9.88K/9
4.10BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.9 runs
37.2% win
PIT F5
2.3 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
65.5%
YRFI
34.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
PIT5 injured
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.