LAA vs MIA prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.7 - LAA 3.0. MIA is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
MIA
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIALAA
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.0% (3,135 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
MIA
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%96 mph11% whiff
CH23%83 mph34% whiff
CU12%81 mph17% whiff
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%94 mph19% whiff
CH17%87 mph20% whiff
FC14%89 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
86°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.89ERA
4.29FIP
9.31K/9
4.07BB/9
1.30WHIP
MIA
4.13ERA
3.94FIP
9.63K/9
4.14BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.6 runs
34.7% win
MIA F5
2.0 runs
45.2% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
61.1%
YRFI
38.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIA7 injured
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.