FINAL: STL 4 — ATL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 3.3 - ATL 4.0 (ATL at 53.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
STL
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLATL
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ATL L5STL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.3 — ATL 4.0
Actual
STL 4 — ATL 1
Pick Results
ATL @ STL NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reynaldo López R
ATL
FF54%94 mph14% whiff
SL30%84 mph29% whiff
CU12%74 mph23% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
SL23%86 mph34% whiff
CU17%80 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
80°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.2% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-30.6% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+21.6% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-14.6% EV
-104
ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+6.0% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.3 runs
48.8% win
STL F5
1.9 runs
35.3% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
52.9%
YRFI
47.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Ozzie Albies ATL25.3%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 4.9% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Reynaldo López
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Mike Yastrzemski LF10-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL2 injured
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=329)
UNDER 8.5 edge at +21.6% is a HIGH_EDGE_WARNING trap (50.1% zone WR on high-edge totals); model projects 7.35 total but both pitchers mediocre (López C+, Liberatore B-); weather slightly favorable for overs (3.4 mph wind out, +2.9% run mult), contradicting under edge.
Key Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: +21.6% UNDER edge (model 63.7% vs market 42.3%) in historically weak YELLOW zone (50.1% WR)
- Pitcher quality mediocre: López C+, Liberatore B- — neither ace-level dominator
- Weather contradiction: +3.4 mph wind out, +2.9% run mult should add runs, opposite of under call
- Model projection reasonable: 7.35 total fair for these pitchers; market at 8.5 respects slight run environment
- RUN_LINE alternative weak: ATL -1.5 only +6.0% edge (also marginal)
Risk Factors
- High edges historically overconfident: Market consensus at 8.5 may be more accurate than our extreme edge
- Weather impact underestimated: If environment inflates more than expected, unders lose badly
- STL home field: Cardinal tradition of slight run environment advantage not accounted for
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 53.6%
-44.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.2 pts
Total
8.5
+21.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →