LAA vs MIN prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 5.3 - LAA 4.8. MIN is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
MIN
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
LAA
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINLAA
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
MIN
357
Projected
MIN 5.3 — LAA 4.8
Actual
MIN 5 — LAA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
FC32%90 mph31% whiff
SI28%92 mph4% whiff
FS25%84 mph37% whiff
Joe Ryan R
MIN
FF45%94 mph22% whiff
ST14%80 mph34% whiff
FS11%88 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
90°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.0% EV
-137
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-15.1% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-14.5% EV
-208
F5_ML AWAY
+11.5% EV
+164
ML HOME
-11.4% EV
-179
F5 OVER 4.5
+9.1% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.6 runs
38.7% win
MIN F5
3.1 runs
48.1% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
44.4%
YRFI
55.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.28
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Ryan Johnson | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Johnson
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Prielipp SP15-DAY-IL
Marco Raya RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE42.8% WR (n=16)
Model shows LAA at +8.8% edge despite Joe Ryan's legitimate 3.08 ERA / 0.755 command edge over unproven Ryan Johnson — away ML zone RED (45.8% WR, -15.16u) means market is correct to price LAA as weak road dog; model confidence is likely overblown.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality gap: Joe Ryan 3.08 ERA (B grade, 0.755 command) >> Ryan Johnson (unknown, weak command 0.645)
- Away ML zone RED: Historical 45.8% WR (z=-1.07, n=170) across away ML bets — structural market inefficiency in our favor suggests market is RIGHT
- Weather: 90°F hot (+1.7% run mult), but wind slight (-2.7 mph in) — net neutral
- Model overconfidence: +8.8% edge on road dog with RED zone suggests model error, not market error
Risk Factors
- Away moneyline historical weakness: 45.8% WR is statistically significant — this is not noise
- LAA upside: Hot weather could help LAA offense; Trout (0.241 ISO) and Neto (0.200 ISO) legitimate bats
- MIN rest state: No injury data to suggest fatigue or weakness
RED ZONEAWAY MONEYLINEMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 53.3%
-6.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.2 pts
Total
9.0
+6.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →