SEA vs TB prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.5 - SEA 4.2. TB is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
TB
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SEA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
TB
346
Projected
TB 4.5 — SEA 4.2
Actual
TB 6 — SEA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF39%96 mph20% whiff
SL23%86 mph34% whiff
FS14%81 mph37% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST26%88 mph38% whiff
CH23%91 mph37% whiff
SI20%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
90°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.8% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-18.9% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-11.0% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.0% EV
+164
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+9.3% EV
-115
F5 OVER 3.5
+8.6% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.3 runs
39.5% win
TB F5
2.6 runs
46.2% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.92x
Luke Raley SEA27.9%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Julio Rodriguez CF7-DAY IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=329)
OVER 7.0 edge at +9.3% is modest; pitcher quality roughly matched (Gilbert B grade vs Jax B grade); weather neutral (89.9°F indoor dome); F5 OVER edge at 8.6% slightly cleaner but still marginal; data inconclusive.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matched quality: Gilbert B vs Jax B — no dramatic edge either direction
- OVER edge modest: +9.3% (model 58.4% vs market 49.1%) — neither strong nor weak
- Weather neutral: 89.9°F indoors (1.0 multiplier) — no run environment edge
- Market line reasonable: 7.0 is fair for matched pitching and dome environment
- F5 OVER cleaner: +8.6% (63.1% model) but still marginal
Risk Factors
- Pitcher dominance possible: Either arm could dominate, skewing toward unders
- Market efficiency: 7.0 may correctly reflect matched arms in neutral environment
- Sample size: Both pitchers fresh with limited tracked data
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.5%
-30.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.8 pts
Total
7.0
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →