CLE vs MIA prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.7 - CLE 3.5. MIA is favored with a 57.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
MIA
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIACLE
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
245
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 4.7 — CLE 3.5
Actual
MIA 1 — CLE 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FC25%86 mph32% whiff
SI23%94 mph16% whiff
FF22%94 mph13% whiff
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF46%98 mph20% whiff
ST15%83 mph37% whiff
SL15%88 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
86°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.035
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.0% EV
-161
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+10.6% EV
+134
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-9.0% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-6.3% EV
-161
ML HOME
-5.5% EV
-159
F5 OVER 4.5
+4.1% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.1 runs
36.3% win
MIA F5
2.6 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
6%
Griffin Conine MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Heriberto Hernández MIA29.2%
ISO: 0.109 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.93x
Liam Hicks MIA23.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 3.5% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
John King RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE53.2% WR (n=121)
Run line edge (MIA -1.5 at +10.6%) is interesting but run lines are structurally neutral historically; pitcher edge (Pérez 10.4 K/9 vs Bibee 7.6 K/9) is modest; hot weather (+3.5% run mult) pushes toward overs, not under; data inconclusive.
Key Factors
- Run line edge: +10.6% (model 47.3% vs market 42.8%) — notable but run lines are YELLOW zone historically
- Pitcher strikeout edge: Pérez 10.4 K/9 > Bibee 7.6 K/9 — slight edge for MIA
- Weather: 86.4°F (warm) with +6.3 mph wind out — should add runs, contradicting tight 7.5 market total
- No dramatic pitcher advantage: Both arms B- grade, fairly matched overall quality
Risk Factors
- Run line historically neutral: May not be exploitable despite +10.6% edge appearance
- Weather could push toward overs: If run environment inflates, MIA -1.5 could be wrong side
- CLE upside: Lineup quality similar to MIA; no dramatic offensive gap
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 57.1%
+10.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+10.6 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →