NYY vs WSH prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.2 - NYY 6.7. NYY is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
WSH
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYY
6.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYY
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
579
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.2 — NYY 6.7
Actual
WSH 2 — NYY 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF45%98 mph30% whiff
FC27%94 mph18% whiff
SI20%98 mph15% whiff
PJ Poulin L
WSH
ST35%79 mph26% whiff
FF30%90 mph9% whiff
SI22%89 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
89°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.3% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-31.9% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+22.9% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
+19.2% EV
-132
F5_ML AWAY
-12.3% EV
-222
ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.9 runs
52.4% win
WSH F5
3.0 runs
37.0% win
F5 Total
6.9
NRFI
45.2%
YRFI
54.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
2%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
PJ Poulin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
WSH8 injured
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
Cade Cavalli SPSUSPENSION
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=329)
Model projects NYY 54.7% win with 11.89 total runs, yet prices OVER at +22.9% edge — this contradicts the supposed pitcher advantage story (Cam Schlittler 2.17 ERA should suppress runs). This is HIGH_EDGE_WARNING overconfidence; market at 9.0 is correctly cautious.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Cam Schlittler 2.17 ERA (B grade, 0.744 command, 28.7% K rate) is elite closer — should SUPPRESS runs, not inflate
- Model incoherence: Projects 6.72 NYY runs with elite pitcher on mound — logic failure
- High-edge trap: OVER edge 22.9% in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) — this is a red flag combo
- Weather: 89.1°F (hot), but -2.4 mph wind in (slight headwind) — net +1.1% run multiplier is modest
- PJ Poulin weakness: C grade pitcher (3.06 ERA) could leak runs, but not to 6.72 level
Risk Factors
- Hot weather could inflate runs more than expected — 89.1°F is legitimately warm
- NYY offensive upside: Even without Judge, Judge has strong lineup (Soto, Rodon, Giancarlo on bench)
- WSH weakness: Nationals are weak team, could allow more runs than expected
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCHDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 54.7%
-32.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.3 pts
Total
9.0
+22.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →