COL vs SF prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 4.5 - COL 4.3. SF is favored with a 52.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
SF
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCOL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
SF
346
Projected
SF 4.5 — COL 4.3
Actual
SF 4 — COL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Freeland L
COL
FF26%92 mph11% whiff
KC21%82 mph30% whiff
FC21%88 mph19% whiff
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF48%92 mph17% whiff
FS26%86 mph26% whiff
FC14%88 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
72°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.966 Total: 0.978
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.6% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-14.1% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-9.8% EV
-152
ML HOME
-8.6% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+5.0% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.7% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.4 runs
40.2% win
SF F5
2.7 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
47.5%
YRFI
52.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Freeland
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Seth Halvorsen RP15-DAY-IL
Tomoyuki Sugano SP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=329)
SF park suppression (0.88 factor) combined with marine layer and 10 mph bay wind blowing in are strong fundamentals for UNDER 8.5, but the +5.0% edge is modest and falls in neutral YELLOW zone; pitcher quality (both B-) offers no directional clue.
Key Factors
- Park suppression: Oracle Park 0.88 factor (12% under-run bias) — one of toughest parks for runs
- Wind: 10.3 mph BLOWING IN directly — significant run-suppression factor in marine layer
- Temperature: 71.6°F (cool) — subtracts ~0.5 runs from baseline
- Pitcher edge slight: Freeland (B-) vs Mahle (B-, 6.16 ERA) — Freeland better but not dramatic
- Model edge modest: +5.0% (model 53.6% vs market 51.6%) in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR)
Risk Factors
- Mahle upside: 6.16 ERA could be inflated by poor run support; he could pitch well
- COL offense: Despite park, Colorado lineup has power (.285 ISO team) that could overcome conditions
- Market efficiency: 8.5 may already price park and weather correctly
PARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 52.4%
-4.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.7 pts
Total
8.5
+5.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →