FINAL: NYM 0 — BOS 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 3.5 - BOS 2.8 (NYM at 55.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
NYM
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMBOS
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS W4NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
NYM
245
Projected
NYM 3.5 — BOS 2.8
Actual
NYM 0 — BOS 4
Pick Results
BOS @ NYM NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eduardo Rivera L
BOS
FF71%95 mph30% whiff
SL19%85 mph50% whiff
CH10%88 mph50% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF53%94 mph18% whiff
CH22%87 mph24% whiff
CU13%80 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.034
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.1% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-34.2% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+26.8% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+18.3% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-9.1% EV
+122
ML HOME
-6.0% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.4 runs
32.2% win
NYM F5
1.9 runs
47.3% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
60.7%
YRFI
39.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Juan Soto NYM28.8%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Eduardo Rivera | Park: 0.96x
Francisco Alvarez NYM19.5%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Eduardo Rivera | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jarren Duran BOS14.7%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eduardo Rivera
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1BSUSPENSION
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Bo Bichette SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE56.1% WR (n=67)
Eduardo Rivera (B+ grade, 0.808 command, elite 8.7 K/9) is a dominant closer over Freddy Peralta (C+ grade), and while full-game UNDER at +26.8% edge is a HIGH_EDGE_WARNING trap, NRFI at +5.5% in GREEN zone (56.1% WR, n=67) is the clean play here — both pitchers keeping first inning quiet.
Key Factors
- NRFI zone GREEN: 56.1% WR (n=67, z=0.86) — statistically significant profitability
- Pitcher mismatch: Eduardo Rivera B+ (0.808 command, 8.7 K/9 elite) >> Peralta C+ (0.382 stuff) — both teams likely quiet early
- Temperature: 75.7°F neutral, +8 mph wind out should help overs, but NRFI is about first inning only
- Model projects 6.21 total: This is exceptionally low, suggesting model overconfident on full-game under
- NRFI edge modest: +5.5% but in strong zone means exploitable
Risk Factors
- High-edge full-game UNDER (26.8%) is a trap — market knows 7.5 is low
- Both teams could score early: Mets have power (Juan Soto 0.225 ISO), Red Sox have lineup quality
- Weather slight over-bias: +8 mph wind out adds ~0.5 runs expected
GREEN ZONEPITCHER MISMATCHNRFI VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 55.0%
+3.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.4 pts
Total
7.5
+26.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →